Photo by Dylan Passmore

Friday’s Globe and Mail featured a prediction by Jeffrey Rubin, the CIBC World Markets economist, that damage from Hurricane Gustav and other intense storms this season could cause a sudden spike in gas prices to $1.75 a litre.

Every time there is a price spike, the media runs to the local gas station to cover the “pain at the pumps”. But does that pain translate into a change in behaviour? How much of an impact do gas prices have on the commuting public in the GTA? Do increasing gas prices cause people to make different personal transportation decisions, or are households just absorbing the extra costs?

It appears that gas prices are affecting vehicle purchasing decisions (sorry GM), but are consumers switching from private vehicles to other modes of transportation? I would love to see the research on that. (Perhaps our friends at Metrolinx have some sources they can share? If readers know of recent research on this question, please leave a link in the comments.) [UPDATE: High gas costs pushing people to use public transit, survey finds, Globe & Mail]

Surely demographic factors influence gas price sensitivity and the substitution of one mode of transportation for another. It makes sense that household incomes will affect price sensitivity, with the working poor being hit hardest. At the same time, many service workers need to use private vehicles to get to or perform their work (i.e. not the GO train Bay Street crowd) and have few alternatives. This creates a political problem that will bring calls for action.

But I also believe that there is a relationship to another familiar demographic trend with political and policy implications: Boomer parents versus their Gen Y children.

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As a comparison to my photo post from last week, I thought I would share what Highway 401 looks like on a regular day. This scene shouldn’t be a surprise as this highway is travelled by 400,000 to 500,000 vehicles a day, making it the busiest in North America, even beyond the freeway in Los Angeles which sees 350,000 vehicles daily.

It’s 8:03am and you’ve just pulled up across the street from the south parking lot at Kipling TTC Station after dropping off your wife at work in Brampton and your kids at the day care in Mississauga. The north lot is always full by 7:30am, but you’re banking on the south lot to still have some spots left.

It doesn’t; the lot has been full since 7:45am, and now you’re stuck driving into downtown Toronto for work. Again.

This isn’t an isolated incident: commuter parking lots (adjacent to GO and TTC stations) do not have enough space to accommodate the multitude of commuters that are looking to leave their cars and take public transit to work every day.

Recently, I got a few friends together to find out just how hard it is to get parking at transit hubs in and around Toronto. The results are sad, but expected:

• Kipling Station (GO, TTC): Lots full at 7:48am.
• Etobicoke North Station (GO): Lots full at 7:39am.
• Cooksville Station (GO): Lots full at 8:06am.
• Finch Station (GO, TTC): Lots full at 8:42am.

Cars that try and squeeze into the lots — particularly those that try and take up the spots occupied by snowbanks in the winter — are actively ticketed by the lot attendants, and privately-owned lots surrounding these commuter lots often charge in excess of $25 to park for the work day.

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